In the second half of the 21st century, the number of people on Earth will begin to decrease, according to researchers from the United States. According to various estimates, the figures fluctuate depending on the calculation methodology.
For example, according to the UN, humanity will reach the threshold by 2100 with a population of about 12 billion people. Other data suggest that by the 2060s the population will grow to 9.5-10 billion people, and then begin to decline rapidly and by 2100 will decrease by about 1 billion from peak values.
The latest data suggest that in the second half of the 21st century the number of people over 80 years of age will increase by 6 times. For countries, this is a huge economic challenge. Plus, there are issues of social security and health care. Countries will be forced to work to smooth things over by supporting families with children and more open immigration policies.
Demographic Situation in Different Parts of the World
In the coming decades, the population in Asian countries will stop growing. China’s population is projected to roughly halve by the end of the century, from 1.5 billion to about 750 million. India, which surpassed China in population this year, will peak by the 2060s and begin to decline as well.
The population of Japan, and these are the most densely populated islands, will decrease from approximately 130 million in 2020 to 60 million by the end of the century, that is, a decrease by the same 2 times in 80 years.
To date, the maximum number of children per woman in sub-Saharan Africa. On average, one woman gives birth to 4.7 children. But even in Africa, by the end of the century, the rate will not exceed 2 children per woman.
Europe and North America have the lowest birth rates on the planet. On these continents, the number is actively declining. For example, by 2050, only half of the US population will belong to the European race, today it is more than 60%. There is an active replacement of the European population with other ethnic groups, one of which is Latin America. Population growth in Latin America is also high, at 2% per year.
Economic Consequences
The reduction in population growth will have a huge impact on economic activity. On the one hand, a decrease in the number of births can lead to a reduction in the labor force. On the other hand, a decline in consumer demand can lead to changes in markets and consumer behavior, which is already negatively affecting companies’ revenues. Imagine how the reduction in income of such giants as Apple, Microsoft or Netflix only due to the decrease in the population will affect and how this will affect the value of the shares of these companies. And the cost of shares puts pressure on the labor market and so on.
With any of the forecasts, the number of old people will increase, which will put pressure on the economy. Already, we see how, for example, France is facing protests over the increase in the threshold for retirement. This is precisely due to the fact that the population of the country is older. But this is only the beginning.
Plus, one adult will have to feed several old people. And for pensions and benefits, the state needs to take money somewhere. So the tax burden will also be one of the main topics.
Ecological Footprint And Natural Resources
But if the reduction of the population is a challenge for the social environment and the economy, then it will most likely be beneficial for the environment and natural resources. With this trend, there will be less pressure on natural resources such as water, food, energy and space, which can help improve their sustainability and conservation.
The stabilization of the population can also have a positive impact on the environment. Reducing the number of people can reduce the overall environmental footprint associated with resource consumption and emissions and promote more sustainable practices. And if we add here the efforts of mankind to switch to renewable energy sources, then the prospect of living in a world with fewer emissions does not seem like a utopia, but rather achievable, albeit a very difficult goal.
