A girl with Ukrainian flag at the protest in Manchester
Piccadilly Gardens, Manchester, 5th March 2022. Manchester stands with Ukraine. | Photo by Ian Betley on Unsplash

How Many Refugees Will Not Return to Ukraine?

The longer the war between Ukraine and Russia goes on, the fewer Ukrainians want to return home. They learn new languages, create new families, find jobs. At the moment, about 12 million Ukrainians are abroad and only 1.5 million have returned.

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KYIV — According to a March survey conducted by Gremni Personal, a company that provides support to 🇺🇦 Ukrainians in finding work in Poland, about 45% of Ukrainian refugees in Poland after the start of the war between Ukraine and Russia, do not plan to return home. This percentage has doubled since October 2022, when only 17% of the respondents answered that they were not going to return to Ukraine. In total, more than 1,200 Ukrainians living in Poland were interviewed. Most likely, similar data will be among Ukrainians in other countries. At the same time, 7% consider Poland as a transitional period and plan to move on to other, mainly European, countries.

One of the main reasons why Ukrainians do not want to return to Ukraine is the destruction and occupation of their homes as a result of the war. Many Ukrainians have left their homes because they have become uninhabitable or are under occupation by the Russian Federation.

Economic Factors

Another important factor is the availability of work and the opportunity to build a new life in a new country. Many Ukrainians have already found work in Poland, where wages are higher than in Ukraine and working conditions are better. According to the ZUS Social Insurance Administration, 739 thousand Ukrainians have already been officially employed. This provides them with the opportunity to support themselves and their families and build a more sustainable future.

The economic attractiveness of Poland also plays a big role. Poland has a more stable economy, higher wages and better living conditions than Ukraine. As for those Ukrainians who remained, according to the “M.V. Ptukha Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine”, as of January 2023, they became poorer by 80%.

Gremni Personal analysis says that since the second half of last year, about 10 thousand companies in Poland were created by Ukrainians, which also indicates the desire for successful adaptation in the new country.

Language learning

Learning the Polish language is also a factor that influences the decision to stay in Poland. About 10% answered that they know perfectly, and 30% already communicate freely. Proficiency in the language also gives Ukrainians confidence in the future and motivates them to stay in Poland.

New Relationships

An additional factor is that many Ukrainian women have already built relationships with Poles, raised families and established homes in Poland. Recall that since the beginning of the war, the departure of Ukrainian men has remained impossible, except for individual cases. Add to this other factors such as the fact that the children went to local schools and kindergartens. All these factors make integration into Polish society even stronger.

General Statistics

According to the “M.V. Ptukha Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine”, about 12 million Ukrainians left their country because of the war, which led to a significant reduction in the country’s population. At the moment, statistics show that only 1.5 million Ukrainians have returned to their homeland. An analysis of data on the return of settlers in the 20th century after local wars, the First and Second World Wars shows that only 30-40% of migrants return to their homeland. Such statistics only confirm that the return of Ukrainians who left the country due to a military conflict can be a complex process and cause certain difficulties.

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The editorial board comprises opinion journalists who draw on their expertise, research, debates, and longstanding values to form their views. It operates independently from the newsroom.

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